Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Port Vale win with a probability of 47.59%. A win for Burton Albion had a probability of 28.14% and a draw had a probability of 24.27%.
The most likely scoreline for a Port Vale win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.14%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.33%) and 2-0 (7.99%). The likeliest Burton Albion win was 0-1 (7.56%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.7%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 5.1% likelihood.