Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Reading win with a probability of 36.48%. A win for AFC Wimbledon had a probability of 36.41% and a draw had a probability of 27.14%.
The most likely scoreline for a Reading win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.64%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.11%) and 0-2 (6.33%). The likeliest AFC Wimbledon win was 1-0 (10.67%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.75%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 2.1% likelihood.