Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Stevenage win with a probability of 43.26%. A draw had a probability of 30.57% and a win for Port Vale had a probability of 26.17%.
The most likely scoreline for a Stevenage win was 1-0 with a probability of 15.15%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.36%) and 2-1 (8.33%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 0-0 (13.25%) , while for a Port Vale win it was 0-1 (10.22%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.3% likelihood.