/https%3A%2F%2Fsportsmole-media-prod.s3.gra.io.cloud.ovh.net%2F19%2F06%2Fderlog.png)
/https%3A%2F%2Fsportsmole-media-prod.s3.gra.io.cloud.ovh.net%2F19%2F10%2Fmorlog.png)
-
David McGoldrick
45'
-
David McGoldrick
47'
-
David McGoldrick
50'
-
James Collins
66'
-
Jason Knight
69'
Derby County vs Morecambe - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings
The match
Match Preview
/https%3A%2F%2Fsportsmole-media-prod.s3.gra.io.cloud.ovh.net%2F23%2F01%2Fpaul-warne_1.jpg)
Form, Standings, Stats
Data analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Derby County win with a probability of 75.69%. A draw had a probability of 15.9% and a win for Morecambe had a probability of 8.45%.
The most likely scoreline for a Derby County win was 2-0 with a probability of 13.62%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (11.47%) and 3-0 (10.77%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.53%), while for a Morecambe win it was 0-1 (3.17%). The actual scoreline of 5-0 was predicted with a 3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Derby County would win this match.
Result
Derby County
75.69%
▲
(+0.75)
Draw
15.85%
▼
(-0.57)
Morecambe
8.45%
▼
(-0.18)
Both Teams to Score:
43.61%
▲
(+1.15)
Goals
Over 2.5
58.32%
▲
(+1.99)
Under 2.5
41.68%
▼
(-1.99)
Over 3.5
35.92%
▲
(+1.98)
Under 3.5
64.08%
▼
(-1.98)
Derby County Goals
Over 0.5
90.68%
▲
(+0.69)
Under 0.5
9.32%
▼
(-0.69)
Over 1.5
68.56%
▲
(+1.61)
Under 1.5
31.43%
▼
(-1.61)
Morecambe Goals
Over 0.5
48.09%
▲
(+0.91)
Under 0.5
51.91%
▼
(-0.91)
Over 1.5
14.05%
▲
(+0.59)
Under 1.5
85.94%
▼
(-0.59)
Score analysis
Derby County
75.68%
Draw
15.85%
Morecambe
8.45%
Derby County
2-0
@
13.62%
▼
(-0.39)
1-0 @ 11.47% ▼ (-0.69)
3-0 @ 10.77% ▲ (+0.03)
2-1 @ 8.93% ▼ (-0.01)
3-1 @ 7.07% ▲ (+0.21)
4-0 @ 6.39% ▲ (+0.21)
4-1 @ 4.19% ▲ (+0.25)
5-0 @ 3.03% ▲ (+0.19)
3-2 @ 2.32% ▲ (+0.13)
5-1 @ 1.99% ▲ (+0.18)
4-2 @ 1.37% ▲ (+0.12)
6-0 @ 1.2% ▲ (+0.11)
Other @ 3.32%
Total : 75.68%
1-0 @ 11.47% ▼ (-0.69)
3-0 @ 10.77% ▲ (+0.03)
2-1 @ 8.93% ▼ (-0.01)
3-1 @ 7.07% ▲ (+0.21)
4-0 @ 6.39% ▲ (+0.21)
4-1 @ 4.19% ▲ (+0.25)
5-0 @ 3.03% ▲ (+0.19)
3-2 @ 2.32% ▲ (+0.13)
5-1 @ 1.99% ▲ (+0.18)
4-2 @ 1.37% ▲ (+0.12)
6-0 @ 1.2% ▲ (+0.11)
Other @ 3.32%
Total : 75.68%
Draw
1-1
@
7.53%
▼
(-0.24)
0-0 @ 4.84% ▼ (-0.45)
2-2 @ 2.93% ▲ (+0.08)
Other @ 0.56%
Total : 15.85%
0-0 @ 4.84% ▼ (-0.45)
2-2 @ 2.93% ▲ (+0.08)
Other @ 0.56%
Total : 15.85%
Morecambe
0-1
@
3.17%
▼
(-0.21)
1-2 @ 2.47% ▼ (-0.02)
0-2 @ 1.04% ▼ (-0.04)
Other @ 1.77%
Total : 8.45%
1-2 @ 2.47% ▼ (-0.02)
0-2 @ 1.04% ▼ (-0.04)
Other @ 1.77%
Total : 8.45%