Form, Standings, Stats
Last Game: Derby 0-2 West Ham
Monday, January 30 at 7.45pm in FA Cup
Monday, January 30 at 7.45pm in FA Cup
Last Game: Morecambe 5-1 Bristol Rovers
Saturday, January 28 at 3pm in League One
Saturday, January 28 at 3pm in League One
We said: Derby County 2-1 Morecambe
Given their recent results, Morecambe will certainly travel with plenty of confidence, and they do have the quality to pull off a result, but we anticipate Warne's men being slightly too strong, and with plenty of momentum of their own, the Rams should take all three points on home turf. Read more.Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Derby County win with a probability of 75.69%. A draw had a probability of 15.9% and a win for Morecambe had a probability of 8.45%.
The most likely scoreline for a Derby County win was 2-0 with a probability of 13.62%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (11.47%) and 3-0 (10.77%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.53%), while for a Morecambe win it was 0-1 (3.17%). The actual scoreline of 5-0 was predicted with a 3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Derby County would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Derby County | Draw | Morecambe |
75.69% ( 0.74) | 15.85% ( -0.57) | 8.45% ( -0.18) |
| Both teams to score 43.61% ( 1.14) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
