Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Barcelona win with a probability of 43.89%. A win for Atletico Madrid had a probability of 31.94% and a draw had a probability of 24.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Barcelona win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.09%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.28%) and 0-2 (6.72%). The likeliest Atletico Madrid win was 2-1 (7.57%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.19%). The actual scoreline of 2-4 was predicted with a 1.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Barcelona would win this match.