La Liga

La Liga | Gameweek 28

Mar 16, 2025 at 8pm UK

Estadio Civitas Metropolitano

Atletico
2 - 4
Barcelona

Alvarez (45'), Sorloth (70')
Mandava (36')

FT(HT: 1-0)

Lewandowski (72'), Torres (78', 90+8'), Yamal (90+2')
Kounde (26'), Balde (64'), Yamal (90+3')

Reaction

Barcelona's Marc Casado in action on March 16, 2025

Barcelona confirm double injury blow after Atletico Madrid win as pair withdraw from Spain squad

Barcelona confirm double injury blow following Sunday's 4-2 win over La Liga title rivals Atletico Madrid, as Inigo Martinez and Marc Casado withdraw from Spain squad.

Mar 17, 14:54

The Match

Form, Standings, Stats

Atletico Madrid

All competitions

La Liga

Last Game: Atletico 1-0 Real Madrid (2-4 pen.)
Wednesday, March 12 at 8pm in Champions League

Goals
for

Barcelona

All competitions

La Liga

Last Game: Barcelona 3-1 Benfica
Tuesday, March 11 at 5.45pm in Champions League

Goals
for

Top scorers

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Barcelona win with a probability of 43.89%. A win for Atletico Madrid had a probability of 31.94% and a draw had a probability of 24.2%.

The most likely scoreline for a Barcelona win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.09%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.28%) and 0-2 (6.72%). The likeliest Atletico Madrid win was 2-1 (7.57%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.19%). The actual scoreline of 2-4 was predicted with a 1.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Barcelona would win this match.

Result
Atletico Madrid	Draw	Barcelona
31.94% ( -0.04)	24.17% ( 0)	43.89% ( 0.03)

Both teams to score 59.53% (

-0.03)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

57.15% (

-0.04)

42.84% (

0.04)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

34.75% (

-0.04)

65.25% (

0.04)

Atletico Madrid Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

74.14% (

-0.04)

25.86% (

0.04)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

39.16% (

-0.06)

60.83% (

0.05)

Barcelona Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

80.29% (

-0)

19.71%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

48.28% (

-0)

51.72% (

-0)

Score Analysis

Atletico Madrid 31.94%

Barcelona 43.89%

Draw 24.16%

Atletico Madrid	Draw	Barcelona
2-1 @ 7.57% ( -0.01) 1-0 @ 6.89% ( 0) 2-0 @ 4.66% ( -0) 3-1 @ 3.41% ( -0.01) 3-2 @ 2.77% ( -0.01) 3-0 @ 2.1% ( -0) 4-1 @ 1.15% ( -0) 4-2 @ 0.94% ( -0) Other @ 2.44% Total : 31.94%	1-1 @ 11.19% 2-2 @ 6.15% ( -0) 0-0 @ 5.1% ( 0.01) 3-3 @ 1.5% ( -0) Other @ 0.23% Total : 24.16%	1-2 @ 9.09% ( 0) 0-1 @ 8.28% ( 0.01) 0-2 @ 6.72% ( 0.01) 1-3 @ 4.92% ( 0) 0-3 @ 3.64% ( 0) 2-3 @ 3.33% ( -0) 1-4 @ 2% ( 0) 0-4 @ 1.48% ( 0) 2-4 @ 1.35% ( -0) Other @ 3.09% Total : 43.89%