Champions League
Real Madrid
Mar 4, 2025 8.00pm
2
1
HT : 1 1
FT Estadio Santiago Bernabeu
Atletico
  • Rodrygo 4' goal
  • Brahim Diaz 55' goal
  • Brahim Diaz 55' yellowcard
  • goal Julian Alvarez 32'

Real Madrid vs Atletico Madrid - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings

The match

Result
Team News
Match Preview
Predicted Lineups
Injuries & Suspensions

Form, Standings, Stats

Real Madrid

All competitions

Atletico Madrid

All competitions

Data analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Real Madrid win with a probability of 53.65%. A win for Atletico Madrid had a probability of 23.93% and a draw had a probability of 22.4%.

The most likely scoreline for a Real Madrid win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.76%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.66%) and 2-0 (8.18%). The likeliest Atletico Madrid win was 1-2 (6.16%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.33%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 2-1 win for Real Madrid in this match.

Result

Real Madrid 53.65% ▼ (-1.74)
Draw 22.42% ▲ (+0.24)
Atletico Madrid 23.93% ▲ (+1.52)

Both Teams to Score: 

59.16% ▲ (+1.16)

Goals

Over 2.5 59.53% ▲ (+0.64)
Under 2.5 40.47% ▼ (-0.64)
Over 3.5 37.15% ▲ (+0.66)
Under 3.5 62.85% ▼ (-0.65)
Over 4.5 19.9% ▲ (+0.51)
Under 4.5 80.1% ▼ (-0.50)

Real Madrid Goals

Over 0.5 84.9% ▼ (-0.35)
Under 0.5 15.1% ▲ (+0.36)
Over 1.5 56.35% ▼ (-0.67)
Under 1.5 43.65% ▲ (+0.68)

Atletico Madrid Goals

Over 0.5 69.68% ▲ (+1.65)
Under 0.5 30.32% ▼ (-1.64)
Over 1.5 33.5% ▲ (+1.92)
Under 1.5 66.5% ▼ (-1.91)

Score analysis

Real Madrid 53.65%
Draw 22.42%
Atletico Madrid 23.93%
Real Madrid
2-1 @ 9.76% ▼ (-0.09)
1-0 @ 8.66% ▼ (-0.37)
2-0 @ 8.18% ▼ (-0.46)
3-1 @ 6.15% ▼ (-0.14)
3-0 @ 5.15% ▼ (-0.36)
3-2 @ 3.67% ▲ (+0.09)
4-1 @ 2.91% ▼ (-0.10)
4-0 @ 2.44% ▼ (-0.20)
4-2 @ 1.73% ▲ (+0.02)
5-1 @ 1.1% ▼ (-0.06)
Other @ 3.9%
Total : 53.65%
Draw
1-1 @ 10.33% ▲ (+0.05)
2-2 @ 5.83% ▲ (+0.21)
0-0 @ 4.58% ▼ (-0.14)
3-3 @ 1.46% ▲ (+0.10)
Other @ 0.23%
Total : 22.42%
Atletico Madrid
1-2 @ 6.16% ▲ (+0.30)
0-1 @ 5.47% ▲ (+0.09)
0-2 @ 3.26% ▲ (+0.20)
1-3 @ 2.45% ▲ (+0.22)
2-3 @ 2.32% ▲ (+0.19)
0-3 @ 1.3% ▲ (+0.14)
Other @ 2.98%
Total : 23.93%

Head to Head

La Liga Gameweek 23
Real Madrid
Feb 8, 2025 8.00pm
1
1
HT : 0 1
FT Estadio Santiago Bernabeu
Atletico
  • Dani Ceballos 25' yellowcard
  • Kylian Mbappe 50' goal
  • goal Julian Alvarez 35'
  • yellowcard Clement Lenglet 45'+4'
  • yellowcard Javi Galan 49'
  • yellowcard Alexander Sorloth 90'+2'
La Liga Gameweek 8
Atletico
Sep 29, 2024 8.00pm
1
1
HT : 0 0
FT Estadio Civitas Metropolitano
Real Madrid
  • Robin Le Normand 63' yellowcard
  • Conor Gallagher 70' yellowcard
  • Julian Alvarez 75' yellowcard
  • Angel Correa 90'+6' goal
  • Marcos Llorente 90'+9' redcard
  • yellowcard Luka Modric 40'
  • goal Eder Militao 64'
La Liga Gameweek 23
Real Madrid
Feb 4, 2024 8.00pm
1
1
HT : 1 0
FT Estadio Santiago Bernabeu
Atletico
  • Brahim Diaz 20' goal
  • yellowcard Saul Niguez 37'
  • yellowcard Mario Hermoso 38'
  • yellowcard Pablo Barrios 85'
  • goal Marcos Llorente 90'+3'
  • yellowcard Memphis Depay 90'+5'
Copa del Rey
Atletico
Jan 18, 2024 8.30pm
4
2
HT : 1 1
ET Estadio Civitas Metropolitano
Real Madrid
  • Samuel Lino 39' goal
  • Alvaro Morata 57' goal
  • Alvaro Morata 58' yellowcard
  • Mario Hermoso 68' yellowcard
  • Rodrigo De Paul 78' yellowcard
  • Koke 80' yellowcard
  • Diego Simeone 83' yellowcard
  • Antoine Griezmann 100' goal
  • Antoine Griezmann 101' yellowcard
  • Axel Witsel 113' yellowcard
  • Rodrigo Riquelme 119' goal
  • yellowcard Vinicius Junior 45'
  • goal Jan Oblak 45'+1' (OG)
  • yellowcard Eduardo Camavinga 56'
  • yellowcard Brahim Diaz 68'
  • goal Joselu 82'
  • yellowcard Aurelien Tchouameni 85'
  • yellowcard Jude Bellingham 87'
  • yellowcard Dani Carvajal 89'
Supercopa de Espana
Real Madrid
Jan 10, 2024 7.00pm
5
3
HT : 2 2
ET Estadio Santiago Bernabeu
Atletico
  • Antonio Rudiger 20' goal
  • Ferland Mendy 29' goal
  • Dani Carvajal 85' goal
  • Joselu 116' goal
  • Brahim Diaz 120'+2' goal
  • Brahim Diaz 120'+3' yellowcard
  • goal Mario Hermoso 6'
  • goal Antoine Griezmann 37'
  • goal Antonio Rudiger 78' (OG)
La Liga Gameweek 6
Atletico
Sep 24, 2023 8.00pm
3
1
HT : 2 1
FT Estadio Civitas Metropolitano
Real Madrid
  • Alvaro Morata 4' goal
  • Antoine Griezmann 18' goal
  • Alvaro Morata 46' goal
  • Jose Gimenez 45'+1' yellowcard
  • goal Toni Kroos 35'
  • yellowcard Luka Modric 45'
  • yellowcard Ferland Mendy 67'
  • yellowcard Jude Bellingham 90'+5'

Form Data

Betis 2 - 1 Real Madrid
Real Sociedad 0 - 1 Real Madrid
Real Madrid 2 - 0 Girona
Real Madrid 3 - 1 Man City
Osasuna 1 - 1 Real Madrid
Man City 2 - 3 Real Madrid
Atletico 1 - 0 Athletic Bilbao
Barcelona 4 - 4 Atletico
Valencia 0 - 3 Atletico
Atletico 1 - 1 Celta Vigo
Real Madrid 1 - 1 Atletico
Atletico 5 - 0 Getafe

Build-up

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