Copa del Rey | Semi-Finals | 1st Leg

Feb 26, 2025 at 8.30pm UK

Reale Arena

Real Sociedad
0 - 1
Real Madrid

(Real Madrid win 5-4 on aggregate)

FT(HT: 0-1)

Endrick (19')
Asencio del Rosario (45+1'), Vazquez (86')

Reaction

Real Madrid's Dani Ceballos on February 8, 2025

Real Madrid injury news: Dani Ceballos facing 'months' out with 'serious' blow, set to miss Atletico Madrid Champions League tie

Real Madrid's Dani Ceballos may be facing a lengthy spell on the sidelines after sustaining an injury in Los Blancos' 1-0 first-leg win at Real Sociedad in the Copa del Rey semi-finals on Wednesday.

Feb 27, 12:48

The Match

Form, Standings, Stats

Real Sociedad

All competitions

Copa del Rey

Last Game: Real Sociedad 3-0 Leganes
Sunday, February 23 at 8pm in La Liga

Goals
for

Real Madrid

All competitions

Copa del Rey

Last Game: Real Madrid 2-0 Girona
Sunday, February 23 at 3.15pm in La Liga

Goals
for

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Real Madrid win with a probability of 41.22%. A win for Real Sociedad had a probability of 33.04% and a draw had a probability of 25.7%.

The most likely scoreline for a Real Madrid win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.71%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.77%) and 0-2 (6.97%). The likeliest Real Sociedad win was 1-0 (8.51%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.21%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 9.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 0-1 win for Real Madrid in this match.

Result
Real Sociedad	Draw	Real Madrid
33.04% ( -0.18)	25.74% ( -0.03)	41.22% ( 0.21)

Both teams to score 54.53% (

0.05)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

50.46% (

0.09)

49.53% (

-0.09)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

28.43% (

0.08)

71.56% (

-0.08)

Real Sociedad Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

71.57% (

-0.07)

28.43% (

0.07)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

35.81% (

-0.09)

64.18% (

0.09)

Real Madrid Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

76.19% (

0.15)

23.81% (

-0.15)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

42.02% (

0.21)

57.97% (

-0.21)

Score Analysis

Real Sociedad 33.04%

Real Madrid 41.22%

Draw 25.73%

Real Sociedad	Draw	Real Madrid
1-0 @ 8.51% ( -0.05) 2-1 @ 7.68% ( -0.03) 2-0 @ 5.35% ( -0.04) 3-1 @ 3.22% ( -0.02) 3-2 @ 2.31% ( -0) 3-0 @ 2.25% ( -0.02) 4-1 @ 1.01% ( -0.01) Other @ 2.7% Total : 33.04%	1-1 @ 12.21% ( -0.02) 0-0 @ 6.77% ( -0.03) 2-2 @ 5.51% ( 0.01) 3-3 @ 1.11% ( 0) Other @ 0.13% Total : 25.73%	0-1 @ 9.71% ( 0.01) 1-2 @ 8.77% ( 0.03) 0-2 @ 6.97% ( 0.03) 1-3 @ 4.19% ( 0.03) 0-3 @ 3.34% ( 0.03) 2-3 @ 2.64% ( 0.01) 1-4 @ 1.51% ( 0.02) 0-4 @ 1.2% ( 0.02) 2-4 @ 0.95% ( 0.01) Other @ 1.95% Total : 41.22%