Copa del Rey | Semi-Finals | 1st Leg

Feb 25, 2025 at 8.30pm UK

Estadi Olimpic Lluis Companys

Barcelona
4 - 4
Atletico

Pedri (19'), Cubarsi (21'), Martinez (41'), Lewandowski (74')

FT(HT: 3-2)

Alvarez (1'), Griezmann (6'), Llorente (84'), Sorloth (90+3')
Galan (16'), Simeone (70'), Gimenez (82'), Barrios (88'), Sorloth (90+1')

The Match

Form, Standings, Stats

Barcelona

All competitions

Copa del Rey

Last Game: Las Palmas 0-2 Barcelona
Saturday, February 22 at 8pm in La Liga

Goals
for

Top scorers

Atletico Madrid

All competitions

Copa del Rey

Last Game: Valencia 0-3 Atletico
Saturday, February 22 at 5.30pm in La Liga

Goals
for

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Barcelona win with a probability of 51.36%. A win for Atletico Madrid had a probability of 25.22% and a draw had a probability of 23.4%.

The most likely scoreline for a Barcelona win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.69%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.37%) and 2-0 (8.28%). The likeliest Atletico Madrid win was 1-2 (6.41%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.96%). The actual scoreline of 4-4 was predicted with a 0.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a draw in this match.

Result
Barcelona	Draw	Atletico Madrid
51.36% ( -0.05)	23.41% ( 0.29)	25.22% ( -0.24)

Both teams to score 57.19% (

-1.25)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

56.27% (

-1.54)

43.73% (

1.54)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

33.88% (

-1.53)

66.12% (

1.52)

Barcelona Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

82.92% (

-0.59)

17.08% (

0.58)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

52.74% (

-1.05)

47.26% (

1.04)

Atletico Madrid Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

68.97% (

-1.02)

31.03% (

1.01)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

32.66% (

-1.2)

67.34% (

1.2)

Score Analysis

Barcelona 51.36%

Atletico Madrid 25.22%

Draw 23.41%

Barcelona	Draw	Atletico Madrid
2-1 @ 9.69% ( 0.01) 1-0 @ 9.37% ( 0.44) 2-0 @ 8.28% ( 0.23) 3-1 @ 5.71% ( -0.11) 3-0 @ 4.88% ( 0.05) 3-2 @ 3.34% ( -0.16) 4-1 @ 2.52% ( -0.1) 4-0 @ 2.15% ( -0.02) 4-2 @ 1.48% ( -0.1) Other @ 3.97% Total : 51.36%	1-1 @ 10.96% ( 0.23) 2-2 @ 5.67% ( -0.16) 0-0 @ 5.3% ( 0.35) 3-3 @ 1.3% ( -0.1) Other @ 0.18% Total : 23.41%	1-2 @ 6.41% ( -0.05) 0-1 @ 6.2% ( 0.24) 0-2 @ 3.63% ( 0.04) 1-3 @ 2.5% ( -0.09) 2-3 @ 2.21% ( -0.12) 0-3 @ 1.42% ( -0.02) Other @ 2.85% Total : 25.22%