Red Bull Salzburg
Champions League | League Stage
Jan 29, 2025 at 8pm UK
Red Bull Arena
Atletico Madrid logo

Salzburg
1 - 4
Atletico

Daghim (90+1')
Capaldo (58'), Blank (66')
FT(HT: 0-3)
Simeone (5'), Griezmann (13', 45+2'), Llorente (63')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Wednesday's Champions League clash between Red Bull Salzburg and Atletico Madrid, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Atletico Madrid win with a probability of 60.43%. A win for Red Bull Salzburg had a probability of 20.12% and a draw had a probability of 19.5%.

The most likely scoreline for an Atletico Madrid win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.48%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (7.5%) and 1-3 (7.24%). The likeliest Red Bull Salzburg win was 2-1 (5.23%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (8.28%). The actual scoreline of 1-4 was predicted with a 4.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Atletico Madrid would win this match.

Result
Red Bull SalzburgDrawAtletico Madrid
20.12% (0.010000000000002 0.01)19.45% (0.0060000000000002 0.01)60.43% (-0.017000000000003 -0.02)
Both teams to score 64.49% (-0.0079999999999956 -0.01)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
68.91% (-0.018000000000001 -0.02)31.08% (0.015999999999998 0.02)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
47.51% (-0.021000000000001 -0.02)52.49% (0.018999999999998 0.02)
Red Bull Salzburg Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
71.75% (-0.0019999999999953 -0)28.25% (0.00099999999999767 0)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
36.04% (-0.00099999999999767 -0)63.95%
Atletico Madrid Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
89.88% (-0.010999999999996 -0.01)10.12% (0.0090000000000003 0.01)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
66.69% (-0.019999999999996 -0.02)33.3% (0.018999999999998 0.02)
Score Analysis
    Red Bull Salzburg 20.12%
    Atletico Madrid 60.43%
    Draw 19.45%
Red Bull SalzburgDrawAtletico Madrid
2-1 @ 5.23% (0.0019999999999998 0)
1-0 @ 3.61% (0.0029999999999997 0)
3-2 @ 2.53% (0.00099999999999989 0)
2-0 @ 2.29% (0.0020000000000002 0)
3-1 @ 2.21% (0.00099999999999989 0)
3-0 @ 0.96% (0.001 0)
Other @ 3.3%
Total : 20.12%
1-1 @ 8.28% (0.0040000000000013 0)
2-2 @ 5.99%
0-0 @ 2.86% (0.0030000000000001 0)
3-3 @ 1.93% (-0.0010000000000001 -0)
Other @ 0.39%
Total : 19.45%
1-2 @ 9.48% (0.00099999999999945 0)
0-2 @ 7.5% (0.00099999999999945 0)
1-3 @ 7.24% (-0.0019999999999998 -0)
0-1 @ 6.55% (0.0030000000000001 0)
0-3 @ 5.73% (-0.0010000000000003 -0)
2-3 @ 4.58% (-0.0010000000000003 -0)
1-4 @ 4.15% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)
0-4 @ 3.28% (-0.0020000000000002 -0)
2-4 @ 2.62% (-0.0019999999999998 -0)
1-5 @ 1.9% (-0.002 -0)
0-5 @ 1.5% (-0.002 -0)
2-5 @ 1.2% (-0.002 -0)
3-4 @ 1.1% (-0.00099999999999989 -0)
Other @ 3.61%
Total : 60.43%

How you voted: Salzburg vs Atletico

Red Bull Salzburg
9.6%
Draw
5.6%
Atletico Madrid
84.8%
125
Head to Head
Dec 9, 2020 8pm
Group Stage
Salzburg
0-2
Atletico

Ramalho (71')
Hermoso (39'), Carrasco (86')
Simeone (42'), Hermoso (45+1'), Savic (61')
Oct 27, 2020 8pm
Group Stage
Atletico
3-2
Salzburg
Llorente (29'), Felix (52', 85')
Llorente (64')
Szoboszlai (40'), Berisha (47')
Ramalho (13'), Wober (23')
rhs 2.0


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