Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Atletico Madrid win with a probability of 62.3%. A draw had a probability of 20.3% and a win for Slovan Bratislava had a probability of 17.36%.
The most likely scoreline for an Atletico Madrid win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.94%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.84%) and 1-0 (9.4%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.49%), while for a Slovan Bratislava win it was 1-2 (4.79%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 6.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Atletico Madrid would win this match.