Champions League

Champions League | League Stage

Jan 22, 2025 at 8pm UK

Estadio Santiago Bernabeu

Real Madrid
5 - 1
Salzburg

Rodrygo (23', 34'), Mbappe (48'), Junior (55', 77')
Junior (42')

FT(HT: 2-0)

Bidstrup (85')

The Match

Form, Standings, Stats

Real Madrid

All competitions

Champions League

Last Game: Real Madrid 4-1 Las Palmas
Sunday, January 19 at 3.15pm in La Liga

Goals
for

Red Bull Salzburg

All competitions

Champions League

Last Game: Salzburg 0-6 Bayern
Monday, January 6 at 5pm in Club Friendlies 1

Goals
for

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Real Madrid win with a probability of 62.71%. A draw had a probability of 18.8% and a win for Red Bull Salzburg had a probability of 18.46%.

The most likely scoreline for a Real Madrid win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.48%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (7.78%) and 3-1 (7.45%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.04%), while for a Red Bull Salzburg win it was 1-2 (4.9%). The actual scoreline of 5-1 was predicted with a 2.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Real Madrid would win this match.

Result
Real Madrid	Draw	Red Bull Salzburg
62.71% ( 0.6)	18.83% ( -0.24)	18.46% ( -0.37)

Both teams to score 63.74% (

0.19)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

69.27% (

0.54)

30.73% (

-0.55)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

47.93% (

0.64)

52.06% (

-0.65)

Real Madrid Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

90.52% (

0.29)

9.47% (

-0.3)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

68.2% (

0.7)

31.8% (

-0.7)

Red Bull Salzburg Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

70.41% (

-0.02)

29.59% (

0.02)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

34.38% (

-0.03)

65.62% (

0.03)

Score Analysis

Real Madrid 62.71%

Red Bull Salzburg 18.46%

Draw 18.83%

Real Madrid	Draw	Red Bull Salzburg
2-1 @ 9.48% ( -0.04) 2-0 @ 7.78% ( -0.03) 3-1 @ 7.45% ( 0.07) 1-0 @ 6.61% ( -0.11) 3-0 @ 6.12% ( 0.06) 3-2 @ 4.53% ( 0.04) 4-1 @ 4.39% ( 0.09) 4-0 @ 3.6% ( 0.08) 4-2 @ 2.67% ( 0.06) 5-1 @ 2.07% ( 0.07) 5-0 @ 1.7% ( 0.06) 5-2 @ 1.26% ( 0.04) 4-3 @ 1.08% ( 0.02) Other @ 3.98% Total : 62.71%	1-1 @ 8.04% ( -0.14) 2-2 @ 5.77% ( -0.03) 0-0 @ 2.8% ( -0.09) 3-3 @ 1.84% ( 0.01) Other @ 0.37% Total : 18.83%	1-2 @ 4.9% ( -0.09) 0-1 @ 3.41% ( -0.11) 2-3 @ 2.34% ( -0.01) 0-2 @ 2.08% ( -0.07) 1-3 @ 1.99% ( -0.04) Other @ 3.74% Total : 18.46%