Champions League

Champions League | League Stage

Oct 2, 2024 at 8pm UK

Stade Pierre-Mauroy

Lille
1 - 0
Real Madrid

David (45+3' pen.)
Diakite (90+6'), David (90+4')

FT(HT: 1-0)

Endrick (46'), Camavinga (59'), Bellingham (78'), Rudiger (79'), Modric (81')

The Match

Form, Standings, Stats

Lille

All competitions

Champions League

Last Game: Le Havre 0-3 Lille
Saturday, September 28 at 6pm in Ligue 1

Goals
for

Real Madrid

All competitions

Champions League

Last Game: Atletico 1-1 Real Madrid
Sunday, September 29 at 8pm in La Liga

Goals
for

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Real Madrid win with a probability of 50.26%. A win for Lille had a probability of 26.42% and a draw had a probability of 23.3%.

The most likely scoreline for a Real Madrid win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.61%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.82%) and 0-2 (7.83%). The likeliest Lille win was 2-1 (6.64%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.81%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 6.1% likelihood.

Result
Lille	Draw	Real Madrid
26.42% ( 0.02)	23.31% ( 0.07)	50.26% ( -0.1)

Both teams to score 58.71% (

-0.23)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

57.74% (

-0.32)

42.25% (

0.31)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

35.34% (

-0.31)

64.66% (

0.31)

Lille Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

70.68% (

-0.15)

29.31% (

0.14)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

34.71% (

-0.18)

65.28% (

0.18)

Real Madrid Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

83.06% (

-0.16)

16.93% (

0.15)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

52.99% (

-0.27)

47.01% (

0.27)

Score Analysis

Lille 26.42%

Real Madrid 50.26%

Draw 23.31%

Lille	Draw	Real Madrid
2-1 @ 6.64% ( 0) 1-0 @ 6.09% ( 0.06) 2-0 @ 3.74% ( 0.02) 3-1 @ 2.72% ( -0.01) 3-2 @ 2.41% ( -0.02) 3-0 @ 1.53% ( 0) Other @ 3.3% Total : 26.42%	1-1 @ 10.81% ( 0.05) 2-2 @ 5.89% ( -0.03) 0-0 @ 4.96% ( 0.07) 3-3 @ 1.43% ( -0.02) Other @ 0.21% Total : 23.31%	1-2 @ 9.61% ( -0) 0-1 @ 8.82% ( 0.08) 0-2 @ 7.83% ( 0.03) 1-3 @ 5.69% ( -0.03) 0-3 @ 4.63% ( -0.01) 2-3 @ 3.49% ( -0.03) 1-4 @ 2.52% ( -0.03) 0-4 @ 2.06% ( -0.01) 2-4 @ 1.55% ( -0.02) Other @ 4.08% Total : 50.26%