Champions League

Champions League | Round of 16 | 2nd Leg

Mar 12, 2025 at 8pm UK

Estadio Civitas Metropolitano

Atletico
1 - 0
Real Madrid

(2-2 on aggregate)

Gallagher (1')
Simeone (66'), Lenglet (68'), Azpilicueta (114'), Llorente (115')

FT
(aet)

Tchouameni (39'), Junior (59'), Vazquez (115'), Mbappe (128')

Real Madrid win 4-2 on penalties

Reaction

Atletico Madrid's Julian Alvarez slipping as he takes his penalty on March 12, 2025

Julian Alvarez penalty controversy could result in rule change as UEFA release statement following Atletico Madrid enquiry

UEFA release a statement to confirm that they will discuss a potential rule change following the penalty controversy from Wednesday's Champions League clash between Atletico Madrid and Real Madrid.

Mar 13, 17:33

Real Madrid head coach Carlo Ancelotti on March 12, 2025

Real Madrid suffer major injury blow against Atletico Madrid as muscular issue is confirmed

Real Madrid head coach Carlo Ancelotti reveals that Ferland Mendy "felt a twinge in his leg" against Atletico Madrid on Wednesday.

Mar 13, 09:07

Vinicius Junior of Real Madrid during his side's match against Atletico Madrid, on March 12, 2025

Vinicius Junior's historic penalty miss: Real Madrid advance past Atletico Madrid to set up quarter-final tie against Arsenal

Vinicius Junior's penalty miss against Atletico Madrid did not stop Real Madrid advancing to the quarter-finals of the Champions League against Arsenal.

Mar 12, 23:51

The Match

Form, Standings, Stats

Atletico Madrid

All competitions

Champions League

Last Game: Getafe 2-1 Atletico
Sunday, March 9 at 1pm in La Liga

Goals
for

Real Madrid

All competitions

Champions League

Last Game: Real Madrid 2-1 Rayo Vallecano
Sunday, March 9 at 3.15pm in La Liga

Goals
for

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Atletico Madrid win with a probability of 39.85%. A win for Real Madrid had a probability of 34.76% and a draw had a probability of 25.4%.

The most likely scoreline for an Atletico Madrid win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.02%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.65%) and 2-0 (6.5%). The likeliest Real Madrid win was 0-1 (8.32%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.99%).

Result
Atletico Madrid	Draw	Real Madrid
39.85% ( 0.85)	25.38% ( -0.09)	34.76% ( -0.77)

Both teams to score 56.15% (

0.18)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

52.38% (

0.29)

47.62% (

-0.29)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

30.17% (

0.26)

69.82% (

-0.27)

Atletico Madrid Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

76.34% (

0.57)

23.65% (

-0.57)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

42.25% (

0.81)

57.75% (

-0.82)

Real Madrid Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

73.55% (

-0.31)

26.45% (

0.31)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

38.37% (

-0.42)

61.62% (

0.41)

Score Analysis

Atletico Madrid 39.85%

Real Madrid 34.76%

Draw 25.38%

Atletico Madrid	Draw	Real Madrid
1-0 @ 9.02% ( 0.04) 2-1 @ 8.65% ( 0.11) 2-0 @ 6.5% ( 0.14) 3-1 @ 4.16% ( 0.12) 3-0 @ 3.12% ( 0.12) 3-2 @ 2.76% ( 0.05) 4-1 @ 1.5% ( 0.07) 4-0 @ 1.13% ( 0.06) 4-2 @ 1% ( 0.04) Other @ 2.02% Total : 39.85%	1-1 @ 11.99% ( -0.05) 0-0 @ 6.26% ( -0.08) 2-2 @ 5.75% ( 0.02) 3-3 @ 1.23% ( 0.01) Other @ 0.16% Total : 25.38%	0-1 @ 8.32% ( -0.18) 1-2 @ 7.98% ( -0.1) 0-2 @ 5.53% ( -0.17) 1-3 @ 3.54% ( -0.08) 2-3 @ 2.55% ( -0.01) 0-3 @ 2.45% ( -0.1) 1-4 @ 1.18% ( -0.04) Other @ 3.22% Total : 34.76%