Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a USA win with a probability of 58.71%. A draw had a probability of 23.1% and a win for Canada had a probability of 18.18%.
The most likely scoreline for a USA win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.56%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.15%) and 2-1 (9.74%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.96%), while for a Canada win it was 0-1 (6.18%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 4.8% likelihood.