USA national football team
Friendlies 1
Sep 7, 2024 at 9pm UK
Children's Mercy Park
Canada national football team

USA
1 - 2
Canada

de la Torre (66')
Balogun (53')
FT(HT: 0-1)
Shaffelburg (17'), David (58')
Larin (63')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's friendly clash between USA and Canada, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

USA

All competitions
International Friendlies
Last Game: USA 0-1 Uruguay
Tuesday, July 2 at 2am in Copa America

Canada

All competitions
International Friendlies
Last Game: Canada 2-2 Uruguay (3-4 pen.)
Sunday, July 14 at 1am in Copa America

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a USA win with a probability of 58.71%. A draw had a probability of 23.1% and a win for Canada had a probability of 18.18%.

The most likely scoreline for a USA win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.56%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.15%) and 2-1 (9.74%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.96%), while for a Canada win it was 0-1 (6.18%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 4.8% likelihood.

Result
USADrawCanada
58.71% (-0.156 -0.16)23.1% (0.035 0.04)18.18% (0.123 0.12)
Both teams to score 48.36% (0.11199999999999 0.11)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
49.36% (0.035000000000004 0.04)50.64% (-0.033999999999999 -0.03)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
27.45% (0.032 0.03)72.55% (-0.028999999999996 -0.03)
USA Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
83.05% (-0.039999999999992 -0.04)16.94% (0.042999999999999 0.04)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
52.97% (-0.074000000000005 -0.07)47.02% (0.076999999999998 0.08)
Canada Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
58.22% (0.165 0.16)41.77% (-0.163 -0.16)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
21.76% (0.144 0.14)78.24% (-0.14 -0.14)
Score Analysis
    USA 58.71%
    Canada 18.18%
    Draw 23.09%
USADrawCanada
1-0 @ 12.56% (-0.039999999999999 -0.04)
2-0 @ 11.15% (-0.049999999999999 -0.05)
2-1 @ 9.74% (0.0030000000000001 0)
3-0 @ 6.6% (-0.037 -0.04)
3-1 @ 5.76% (-0.0069999999999997 -0.01)
4-0 @ 2.93% (-0.021 -0.02)
4-1 @ 2.56% (-0.0060000000000002 -0.01)
3-2 @ 2.51% (0.008 0.01)
4-2 @ 1.12% (0.002 0)
5-0 @ 1.04% (-0.0089999999999999 -0.01)
5-1 @ 0.91% (-0.003 -0)
Other @ 1.83%
Total : 58.71%
1-1 @ 10.96% (0.010000000000002 0.01)
0-0 @ 7.08% (-0.0099999999999998 -0.01)
2-2 @ 4.25% (0.02 0.02)
Other @ 0.81%
Total : 23.09%
0-1 @ 6.18% (0.018 0.02)
1-2 @ 4.79% (0.029 0.03)
0-2 @ 2.7% (0.021 0.02)
1-3 @ 1.39% (0.015 0.02)
2-3 @ 1.24% (0.011 0.01)
Other @ 1.89%
Total : 18.18%

How you voted: USA vs Canada

USA
66.0%
Draw
13.2%
Canada
20.8%
53
Head to Head
Jul 10, 2023 12.30am
Quarter-Finals
USA
2-2
Canada
(Aggregate 2-2 | USA win 3-2 on penalties)
Vazquez (88'), Kennedy (114' og.)
Cowell (96'), Miazga (120+1')
Vitoria (90+3' pen.), Shaffelburg (109')
Cavallini (42'), McGraw (56'), Miller (57'), Osorio (62')
> Preview
Jun 19, 2023 1.30am
Final
Canada
0-2
USA

Kennedy (15'), Laryea (45+4')
Richards (12'), Balogun (34')
Cardoso (80'), Turner (81')
> Preview
Jan 30, 2022 8.05pm
Third Round
Canada
2-0
USA
Larin (7'), Adekugbe (90+5')
Vitoria (31'), Buchanan (88')
> Preview
Sep 6, 2021 1am
Third Round
USA
1-1
Canada
Aaronson (55')
Larin (62')
> Preview
Jul 18, 2021 10pm
Group Stage
USA
1-0
Canada
Moore (1')
> Preview