Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Qarabag FK win with a probability of 54.25%. A draw had a probability of 24.56% and a win for Metalist Kharkiv had a probability of 21.14%.
The most likely scoreline for a Qarabag FK win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.63%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.94%) and 2-0 (9.47%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.63%) , while for a Metalist Kharkiv win it was 0-1 (6.27%).