Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Metalist Kharkiv win with a probability of 43.48%. A win for CF Montreal had a probability of 30.79% and a draw had a probability of 25.72%.
The most likely scoreline for a Metalist Kharkiv win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.64%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.3%) and 2-0 (6.72%). The likeliest CF Montreal win was 0-1 (7.76%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.65%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.3% likelihood.