Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Metalist Kharkiv win with a probability of 62.58%. A draw had a probability of 23.9% and a win for Obolon Kyiv had a probability of 13.53%.
The most likely scoreline for a Metalist Kharkiv win was 0-1 with a probability of 17.12%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (14.13%) and 1-2 (8.7%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.53%) , while for a Obolon Kyiv win it was 1-0 (6.38%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 4.8% likelihood.