Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Qarabag FK win with a probability of 43.51%. A win for CSKA Sofia had a probability of 31.14% and a draw had a probability of 25.35%.
The most likely scoreline for a Qarabag FK win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.2%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.37%) and 0-2 (6.86%). The likeliest CSKA Sofia win was 2-1 (8.14%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.19%). The actual scoreline of 0-0 was predicted with a 7.1% likelihood.