Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Shakhtar Donetsk win with a probability of 46.43%. A win for Crystal Palace had a probability of 29.5% and a draw had a probability of 24.06%.
The most likely scoreline for a Shakhtar Donetsk win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.75%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.76%) and 2-0 (7.8%). The likeliest Crystal Palace win was 0-1 (7.62%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.99%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 2.9% likelihood.