Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a AZ Alkmaar win with a probability of 48.45%. A win for Shakhtar Donetsk had a probability of 26.63% and a draw had a probability of 24.92%.
The most likely scoreline for a AZ Alkmaar win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.89%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.28%) and 2-0 (8.66%). The likeliest Shakhtar Donetsk win was 0-1 (6.94%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.5%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 5.2% likelihood.