Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Shakhtar Donetsk win with a probability of 52.73%. A draw had a probability of 25.45% and a win for Metalist Kharkiv had a probability of 21.83%.
The most likely scoreline for a Shakhtar Donetsk win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.85%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (10.02%) and 2-0 (9.48%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.09%) , while for a Metalist Kharkiv win it was 0-1 (6.78%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with an 11.9% likelihood.