Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Shakhtar Donetsk win with a probability of 49.53%. A win for AZ Alkmaar had a probability of 28.2% and a draw had a probability of 22.26%.
The most likely scoreline for a Shakhtar Donetsk win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.57%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.78%) and 2-0 (7.09%). The likeliest AZ Alkmaar win was 1-2 (6.73%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.86%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 4.7% likelihood.