Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Shakhtar Donetsk win with a probability of 47.85%. A win for Lech Poznan had a probability of 27.68% and a draw had a probability of 24.48%.
The most likely scoreline for a Shakhtar Donetsk win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.88%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.42%) and 2-0 (8.01%). The likeliest Lech Poznan win was 0-1 (6.93%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.41%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 6.7% likelihood.