Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lech Poznan win with a probability of 51.22%. A win for KuPS had a probability of 26.12% and a draw had a probability of 22.63%.
The most likely scoreline for a Lech Poznan win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.33%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.57%) and 2-0 (7.34%). The likeliest KuPS win was 1-2 (5.98%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.26%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with an 8.6% likelihood.