Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lech Poznan win with a probability of 42.28%. A win for KuPS had a probability of 34.37% and a draw had a probability of 23.38%.
The most likely scoreline for a Lech Poznan win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.38%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (7.78%) and 0-2 (6.42%). The likeliest KuPS win was 2-1 (7.42%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.36%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 6.4% likelihood.