Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Feyenoord win with a probability of 56.91%. A win for AZ Alkmaar had a probability of 22.07% and a draw had a probability of 21.05%.
The most likely scoreline for a Feyenoord win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.79%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.56%) and 2-0 (7.55%). The likeliest AZ Alkmaar win was 1-2 (5.75%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.04%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 9% likelihood.