Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a AZ Alkmaar win with a probability of 40.61%. A win for FC Twente had a probability of 31.92% and a draw had a probability of 27.47%.
The most likely scoreline for a AZ Alkmaar win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.44%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (7.9%) and 2-0 (6.75%). The likeliest FC Twente win was 0-1 (8.52%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.95%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 5.4% likelihood.