Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a FC Twente win with a probability of 39.3%. A win for Ajax had a probability of 35.56% and a draw had a probability of 25.14%.
The most likely scoreline for a FC Twente win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.38%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.19%) and 0-2 (5.8%). The likeliest Ajax win was 1-0 (8.01%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.16%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with an 8.4% likelihood.