/https%3A%2F%2Fsportsmole-media-prod.s3.gra.io.cloud.ovh.net%2F19%2F10%2Fazlog.png)
/https%3A%2F%2Fsportsmole-media-prod.s3.gra.io.cloud.ovh.net%2F21%2F28%2Fneclog.png)
-
Mees de Wit
32'
-
Isak Jensen
55'
-
Sven Mijnans
67'
-
Billy van Duijl
69'
-
Peer Koopmeiners
73'
-
Denso Kasius
86'
-
Denso Kasius
89'
-
Kees Smit
90'+1'
-
Troy Parrott
90'+5'
-
Willum Thór Willumsson
46'
-
Youssef El Kachati
74'
-
Deveron Fonville
74'
-
Koki Ogawa
74'
-
Danilo
74'
-
Danilo
76'
-
Koki Ogawa
77'
-
Koki Ogawa
78'
AZ Alkmaar vs NEC - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings
The match
Match Preview
/https%3A%2F%2Fsportsmole-media-prod.s3.gra.io.cloud.ovh.net%2Fuploads%2F2026%2F04%2Faz-alkmaar-players-celebrate-a-goal-on-march-4-2026-orange-pictures-69e143b7dd0a9726787636.jpg)
Data analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a AZ Alkmaar win with a probability of 40.1%. A win for NEC had a probability of 36.7% and a draw had a probability of 23.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a AZ Alkmaar win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.52%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (6.46%) and 2-0 (5.38%). The likeliest NEC win was 1-2 (8.12%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.21%).
Result
AZ Alkmaar
40.1%
▼
(-1.90)
Draw
23.2%
NEC
36.7%
▲
(+1.91)
Both Teams to Score:
64.4%
▲
(+0.31)
Goals
Over 1.5
83.48%
▲
(+0.16)
Under 1.5
16.52%
▼
(-0.16)
Over 2.5
63%
▲
(+0.30)
Under 2.5
37%
▼
(-0.30)
Over 3.5
40.8%
▲
(+0.30)
Under 3.5
59.2%
▼
(-0.30)
Over 4.5
25.05%
▲
(+0.23)
Under 4.5
74.95%
▼
(-0.22)
AZ Alkmaar Goals
Over 1.5
46.28%
▼
(-1.43)
Under 1.5
53.72%
▲
(+1.43)
Over 2.5
22.07%
▼
(-1.08)
Under 2.5
77.93%
▲
(+1.08)
Over 3.5
8.64%
▼
(-0.56)
Under 3.5
91.36%
▲
(+0.57)
NEC Goals
Over 0.5
72.99%
▲
(+1.43)
Under 0.5
27.01%
▼
(-1.43)
Over 1.5
43.38%
▲
(+1.85)
Under 1.5
56.62%
▼
(-1.85)
Over 2.5
19.89%
▲
(+1.34)
Under 2.5
80.11%
▼
(-1.35)
Over 3.5
7.49%
▲
(+0.67)
Under 3.5
92.51%
▼
(-0.68)
Score analysis
AZ Alkmaar
40.09%
Draw
23.19%
NEC
36.71%
AZ Alkmaar
2-1
@
8.52%
▼
(-0.23)
1-0 @ 6.46% ▼ (-0.25)
2-0 @ 5.38% ▼ (-0.34)
3-1 @ 4.72% ▼ (-0.25)
3-2 @ 3.74% ▼ (-0.07)
3-0 @ 2.99% ▼ (-0.25)
Other @ 8.28% ▼ (-0.58)
Total : 40.09%
1-0 @ 6.46% ▼ (-0.25)
2-0 @ 5.38% ▼ (-0.34)
3-1 @ 4.72% ▼ (-0.25)
3-2 @ 3.74% ▼ (-0.07)
3-0 @ 2.99% ▼ (-0.25)
Other @ 8.28% ▼ (-0.58)
Total : 40.09%
Draw
1-1
@
10.21%
▼
(-0.08)
2-2 @ 6.75% ▲ (+0.06)
0-0 @ 3.89% ▼ (-0.05)
3-3 @ 1.98% ▲ (+0.06)
Other @ 0.36% ▲ (+0.02)
Total : 23.19%
2-2 @ 6.75% ▲ (+0.06)
0-0 @ 3.89% ▼ (-0.05)
3-3 @ 1.98% ▲ (+0.06)
Other @ 0.36% ▲ (+0.02)
Total : 23.19%
NEC
1-2
@
8.12%
▲
(+0.25)
0-1 @ 6.16% ▲ (+0.13)
0-2 @ 4.88% ▲ (+0.26)
1-3 @ 4.28% ▲ (+0.27)
2-3 @ 3.56% ▲ (+0.15)
0-3 @ 2.58% ▲ (+0.23)
Other @ 7.13% ▲ (+0.67)
Total : 36.71%
0-1 @ 6.16% ▲ (+0.13)
0-2 @ 4.88% ▲ (+0.26)
1-3 @ 4.28% ▲ (+0.27)
2-3 @ 3.56% ▲ (+0.15)
0-3 @ 2.58% ▲ (+0.23)
Other @ 7.13% ▲ (+0.67)
Total : 36.71%
Head to Head
-
Troy Parrott
40'
-
Jizz Hornkamp
65'
-
Ibrahim Sadiq
65'
-
Ayoub Oufkir
65'
-
Seiya Maikuma
65'
-
Mateo Chávez
83'
-
Tjaronn Chery
10'
-
Başar Önal
12'
-
Kodai Sano
52'
-
Brayann Pereira
75'
-
Dirk Proper
76'
-
Philippe Sandler
76'
-
Virgil Misidjan
82'
-
Youssef El Kachati
90'+1'