Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a PSV Eindhoven win with a probability of 54.93%. A win for NEC had a probability of 23.29% and a draw had a probability of 21.78%.
The most likely scoreline for a PSV Eindhoven win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.54%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.99%) and 2-0 (7.11%). The likeliest NEC win was 1-2 (5.22%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (8.95%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 2.8% likelihood.