Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a NEC win with a probability of 48.14%. A win for SBV Excelsior had a probability of 28.27% and a draw had a probability of 23.58%.
The most likely scoreline for a NEC win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.79%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.05%) and 0-2 (8.04%). The likeliest SBV Excelsior win was 1-0 (6.46%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.35%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with an 8% likelihood.