Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Heracles win with a probability of 40.99%. A win for SBV Excelsior had a probability of 34.11% and a draw had a probability of 24.91%.
The most likely scoreline for a Heracles win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.76%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.15%) and 2-0 (6.13%). The likeliest SBV Excelsior win was 1-2 (7.89%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.29%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with an 11.3% likelihood.