Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a SBV Excelsior win with a probability of 43.64%. A win for Heerenveen had a probability of 32.9% and a draw had a probability of 23.46%.
The most likely scoreline for a SBV Excelsior win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.99%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.49%) and 2-0 (6.17%). The likeliest Heerenveen win was 1-2 (7.54%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.44%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 7.5% likelihood.