Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Feyenoord win with a probability of 66.4%. A draw had a probability of 18.54% and a win for SBV Excelsior had a probability of 15.07%.
The most likely scoreline for a Feyenoord win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.64%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.29%) and 1-0 (8.52%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.28%) , while for a SBV Excelsior win it was 1-2 (3.97%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.6% likelihood.