Malawi national football team
COSAFA Cup | Group Stage
Jun 5, 2025 at 2pm UK
 
Lesotho national football team

Malawi
0 - 1
Lesotho

FT(HT: 0-0)

Makha (65'), Fothoane (74'), (80'), (80')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Thursday's COSAFA Cup clash between Malawi and Lesotho, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Malawi

All competitions
Last Game: Tunisia 2-0 Malawi
Monday, March 24 at 9pm in World Cup Qualifying - Africa

Lesotho

Last Game: Rwanda 1-1 Lesotho
Tuesday, March 25 at 4pm in World Cup Qualifying - Africa

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats, suggests the most likely outcome of this match is a Malawi win with a probability of 53.63%. A draw has a probability of 27.7% and a win for Lesotho has a probability of 18.69%.

The most likely scoreline for a Malawi win is 1-0 with a probability of 17.27%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome are 2-0 (12%) and 2-1 (8.35%). The likeliest drawn scoreline is 0-0 (12.43%), while for a Lesotho win it is 0-1 (8.64%).

Result
MalawiDrawLesotho
53.63% (-0.878 -0.88)27.68% (0.422 0.42)18.69% (0.455 0.46)
Both teams to score 37.62% (-0.30099999999999 -0.3)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
34.62% (-0.762 -0.76)65.37% (0.762 0.76)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
15.85% (-0.534 -0.53)84.15% (0.533 0.53)
Malawi Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
75.08% (-0.74000000000001 -0.74)24.92% (0.739 0.74)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
40.46% (-1.038 -1.04)59.54% (1.037 1.04)
Lesotho Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
50.1% (0.091000000000001 0.09)49.9% (-0.093000000000004 -0.09)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
15.41% (0.063000000000001 0.06)84.58% (-0.064999999999998 -0.06)
Score Analysis
    Malawi 53.62%
    Lesotho 18.69%
    Draw 27.67%
MalawiDrawLesotho
1-0 @ 17.27% (0.11 0.11)
2-0 @ 12% (-0.18 -0.18)
2-1 @ 8.35% (-0.1 -0.1)
3-0 @ 5.56% (-0.204 -0.2)
3-1 @ 3.87% (-0.131 -0.13)
4-0 @ 1.93% (-0.114 -0.11)
3-2 @ 1.34% (-0.041 -0.04)
4-1 @ 1.34% (-0.075 -0.08)
Other @ 1.96%
Total : 53.62%
0-0 @ 12.43% (0.35 0.35)
1-1 @ 12.01% (0.12 0.12)
2-2 @ 2.9% (-0.027 -0.03)
Other @ 0.33%
Total : 27.67%
0-1 @ 8.64% (0.263 0.26)
1-2 @ 4.18% (0.051 0.05)
0-2 @ 3% (0.099 0.1)
1-3 @ 0.97% (0.014 0.01)
Other @ 1.9%
Total : 18.69%

Head to Head
Jul 14, 2023 2pm
Semi-Finals
Malawi
1-1
Lesotho
(Aggregate 1-1 | Lesotho win 3-0 on penalties)
Kawonga (26' pen.)
Thaba-Ntso (18')
Mkwanazi (24'), Neris Tseka (78')
Mkwanazi (45')
> Preview
Feb 25, 2023 1pm
Friendlies 3
Malawi
1-1
Lesotho
Jul 6, 2022 4pm
Group Stage
Lesotho
2-1
Malawi
Mkandawire (14' og.), Makateng (56')
Makepe (41')
Msowoya (88')
Msowoya (82')
Oct 14, 2019
2pm
International Friendlies
Lesotho  
L
vs.
M
   Malawi