Copa Sudamericana | Group Stage

May 29, 2025 at 1.30am UK

Estadio San Carlos de Apoquindo

U. Catolica
1 - 0
Vitoria

Baralhas (75' og., 75' og.)
Johan Moreno Zuniga (79'), Johan Moreno Zuniga (79')

FT(HT: 0-0)

Baralhas (27'), Baralhas (27'), Jamerson (34'), Jamerson (34'), Marcos (37'), Marcos (37')

Coverage of the Copa Sudamericana Group Stage clash between Universidad Catolica and Vitoria.

Form, Standings, Stats

Universidad Catolica

Last Game: Defensa 1-1 U. Catolica
Wednesday, May 14 at 11pm in Copa Sudamericana

Vitoria

All competitions

Copa Sudamericana

Last Game: Vitoria 0-1 Santos
Sunday, May 25 at 10.30pm in Brasileiro

Goals
for

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Universidad Catolica win with a probability of 55.71%. A draw had a probability of 23.6% and a win for Vitoria had a probability of 20.73%.

The most likely scoreline for a Universidad Catolica win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.6%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.12%) and 2-1 (9.78%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.2%), while for a Vitoria win it was 0-1 (6.42%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with an 11.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Universidad Catolica in this match.

Result
Universidad Catolica	Draw	Vitoria
55.71% ( -0.12)	23.55% ( 0.02)	20.73% ( 0.1)

Both teams to score 51.12% (

0.09)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

50.91% (

0.04)

49.09% (

-0.05)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

28.83% (

0.04)

71.16% (

-0.04)

Universidad Catolica Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

82.54% (

-0.03)

17.46% (

0.03)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

52.07% (

-0.05)

47.93% (

0.05)

Vitoria Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

61.93% (

0.13)

38.07% (

-0.13)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

25.16% (

0.12)

74.84% (

-0.13)

Score Analysis

Universidad Catolica 55.71%

Vitoria 20.73%

Draw 23.55%

Universidad Catolica	Draw	Vitoria
1-0 @ 11.6% ( -0.03) 2-0 @ 10.12% ( -0.04) 2-1 @ 9.78% ( -0) 3-0 @ 5.89% ( -0.03) 3-1 @ 5.69% ( -0.01) 3-2 @ 2.75% ( 0.01) 4-0 @ 2.57% ( -0.01) 4-1 @ 2.48% ( -0) 4-2 @ 1.2% ( 0) Other @ 3.64% Total : 55.71%	1-1 @ 11.2% ( 0.01) 0-0 @ 6.65% ( -0.01) 2-2 @ 4.72% ( 0.02) Other @ 0.98% Total : 23.55%	0-1 @ 6.42% ( 0.01) 1-2 @ 5.41% ( 0.02) 0-2 @ 3.1% ( 0.02) 1-3 @ 1.74% ( 0.01) 2-3 @ 1.52% ( 0.01) 0-3 @ 1% ( 0.01) Other @ 1.55% Total : 20.73%