Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Universidad Catolica win with a probability of 41.6%. A win for Cerro Largo had a probability of 30.85% and a draw had a probability of 27.6%.

The most likely scoreline for a Universidad Catolica win was 0-1 with a probability of 12%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.46%) and 0-2 (7.82%). The likeliest Cerro Largo win was 1-0 (9.97%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.98%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 3.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Universidad Catolica would win this match.

Result
Cerro Largo	Draw	Universidad Catolica
30.85% ( 0.05)	27.56% ( -0.03)	41.6% ( -0.01)

Both teams to score 48.13% (

0.12)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

42.62% (

0.14)

57.38% (

-0.13)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

21.8% (

0.11)

78.2% (

-0.11)

Cerro Largo Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

66.09% (

0.11)

33.91% (

-0.1)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

29.42% (

0.11)

70.58% (

-0.11)

Universidad Catolica Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

72.83% (

0.06)

27.17% (

-0.06)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

37.42% (

0.08)

62.58% (

-0.07)

Score Analysis

Cerro Largo 30.85%

Universidad Catolica 41.59%

Draw 27.55%

Cerro Largo	Draw	Universidad Catolica
1-0 @ 9.97% ( -0.02) 2-1 @ 7.02% ( 0.01) 2-0 @ 5.39% ( 0) 3-1 @ 2.53% ( 0.01) 3-0 @ 1.94% ( 0.01) 3-2 @ 1.65% ( 0.01) Other @ 2.35% Total : 30.85%	1-1 @ 12.98% ( -0.01) 0-0 @ 9.21% ( -0.05) 2-2 @ 4.57% ( 0.02) Other @ 0.78% Total : 27.55%	0-1 @ 12% ( -0.04) 1-2 @ 8.46% ( 0.01) 0-2 @ 7.82% ( -0.02) 1-3 @ 3.67% ( 0.01) 0-3 @ 3.4% ( -0) 2-3 @ 1.99% ( 0.01) 1-4 @ 1.2% ( 0.01) 0-4 @ 1.11% ( 0) Other @ 1.95% Total : 41.59%