Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Universidad Catolica win with a probability of 41.6%. A win for Cerro Largo had a probability of 30.85% and a draw had a probability of 27.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Universidad Catolica win was 0-1 with a probability of 12%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.46%) and 0-2 (7.82%). The likeliest Cerro Largo win was 1-0 (9.97%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.98%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 3.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Universidad Catolica would win this match.