Copa Sudamericana | Group Stage
Apr 25, 2025 at 3am UK
Estadio San Carlos de Apoquindo
Defensa y Justicia

U. Catolica
3 - 1
Defensa

Diaz (9' pen., 9' pen., 80', 80'), Johan Moreno Zuniga (70', 70')
Anangono (61'), Anangono (61'), Diaz (81'), Diaz (81')
FT(HT: 2-2)
Gutierrez (14', 14')
Cannavo (82'), Cannavo (82'), Ramirez (83'), Ramirez (83')
Ramirez (90+1'), Ramirez (90+1')
Coverage of the Copa Sudamericana Group Stage clash between Universidad Catolica and Defensa y Justicia.

Form, Standings, Stats

Universidad Catolica

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Last Game: U. Catolica 3-1 Cerro Largo
Friday, April 11 at 3am in Copa Sudamericana
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Defensa y Justicia

All competitions
Copa Sudamericana
Last Game: Huracan 1-1 Defensa
Saturday, April 19 at 10.15pm in Argentine Primera Division

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Universidad Catolica win with a probability of 49.49%. A win for Defensa y Justicia had a probability of 25.58% and a draw had a probability of 24.9%.

The most likely scoreline for a Universidad Catolica win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.99%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.48%) and 2-0 (8.8%). The likeliest Defensa y Justicia win was 0-1 (7.41%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.84%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 5.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Universidad Catolica would win this match.

Result
Universidad CatolicaDrawDefensa y Justicia
49.49% (0.055999999999997 0.06)24.92% (-0.021000000000001 -0.02)25.58% (-0.036999999999999 -0.04)
Both teams to score 52.63% (0.027999999999999 0.03)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
50.08% (0.054000000000002 0.05)49.91% (-0.056999999999995 -0.06)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
28.09% (0.048999999999999 0.05)71.9% (-0.050999999999988 -0.05)
Universidad Catolica Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
79.81% (0.044000000000011 0.04)20.19% (-0.047000000000001 -0.05)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
47.51% (0.072000000000003 0.07)52.49% (-0.073999999999998 -0.07)
Defensa y Justicia Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
65.94% (-0.0039999999999907 -0)34.05% (0.0010000000000048 0)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
29.26% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)70.73%
Score Analysis
    Universidad Catolica 49.48%
    Defensa y Justicia 25.58%
    Draw 24.91%
Universidad CatolicaDrawDefensa y Justicia
1-0 @ 10.99% (-0.0099999999999998 -0.01)
2-1 @ 9.48% (0.0050000000000008 0.01)
2-0 @ 8.8% (0.0050000000000008 0.01)
3-1 @ 5.06% (0.010000000000001 0.01)
3-0 @ 4.69% (0.0099999999999998 0.01)
3-2 @ 2.72% (0.0050000000000003 0.01)
4-1 @ 2.02% (0.0070000000000001 0.01)
4-0 @ 1.88% (0.0069999999999999 0.01)
4-2 @ 1.09% (0.004 0)
Other @ 2.75%
Total : 49.48%
1-1 @ 11.84% (-0.0099999999999998 -0.01)
0-0 @ 6.87% (-0.016 -0.02)
2-2 @ 5.11% (0.0030000000000001 0)
3-3 @ 0.98% (0.002 0)
Other @ 0.11%
Total : 24.91%
0-1 @ 7.41% (-0.016999999999999 -0.02)
1-2 @ 6.38% (-0.0049999999999999 -0)
0-2 @ 3.99% (-0.0090000000000003 -0.01)
1-3 @ 2.29% (-0.0020000000000002 -0)
2-3 @ 1.83% (0.0010000000000001 0)
0-3 @ 1.43% (-0.004 -0)
Other @ 2.25%
Total : 25.58%