Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Vitoria win with a probability of 39.9%. A win for Defensa y Justicia had a probability of 31.88% and a draw had a probability of 28.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Vitoria win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.32%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.13%) and 2-0 (7.6%). The likeliest Defensa y Justicia win was 0-1 (10.69%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.18%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 13.2% likelihood.