Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Independiente Rivadavia win with a probability of 36.28%. A win for Defensa y Justicia had a probability of 35.23% and a draw had a probability of 28.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Independiente Rivadavia win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.74%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (7.66%) and 2-0 (6.77%). The likeliest Defensa y Justicia win was 0-1 (11.53%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.28%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 1.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Independiente Rivadavia would win this match.