Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Tigre win with a probability of 46.03%. A draw had a probability of 28.7% and a win for Alianza Atletico had a probability of 25.23%.
The most likely scoreline for a Tigre win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.37%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.29%) and 2-1 (8.53%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.79%) , while for a Alianza Atletico win it was 0-1 (9.38%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 9.3% likelihood.