Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Alianza Atletico win with a probability of 46.9%. A draw had a probability of 28.11% and a win for Deportivo Garcilaso had a probability of 24.99%.
The most likely scoreline for a Alianza Atletico win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.2%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.35%) and 2-1 (8.57%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.9%) , while for a Deportivo Garcilaso win it was 0-1 (9.54%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 9.4% likelihood.