Copa Sudamericana | Group Stage
Apr 4, 2024 at 11pm UK
Estadio Inca Garcilaso de la Vega

Deportivo Garcilaso
3 - 2
Metropolitanos

Gentile (30'), Erustes (63' pen.), Gordillo (90+3')
FT(HT: 1-2)
Ortiz (25', 37')
Marchan (56'), Villete (58'), Villero (78')
Coverage of the Copa Sudamericana Group Stage clash between Deportivo Garcilaso and Metropolitanos.

Form, Standings, Stats

Deportivo Garcilaso

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Last Game: Deportivo Garcilaso 0-0 ADT (4-3 pen.)
Wednesday, March 6 at 12.30am in Copa Sudamericana
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Metropolitanos

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Last Game: Carabobo 1-1 Metropolitanos (4-5 pen.)
Wednesday, March 6 at 12.30am in Copa Sudamericana
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Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Deportivo Garcilaso win with a probability of 51.64%. A draw had a probability of 25.4% and a win for Metropolitanos had a probability of 22.96%.

The most likely scoreline for a Deportivo Garcilaso win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.64%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.89%) and 2-1 (9.41%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.02%), while for a Metropolitanos win it was 0-1 (7.69%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 2.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Deportivo Garcilaso would win this match.

Result
Deportivo GarcilasoDrawMetropolitanos
51.64% (0.282 0.28)25.39% (-0.081 -0.08)22.96% (-0.202 -0.2)
Both teams to score 48.54% (0.010999999999996 0.01)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
46.02% (0.127 0.13)53.98% (-0.127 -0.13)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
24.58% (0.106 0.11)75.42% (-0.107 -0.11)
Deportivo Garcilaso Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
79.08% (0.17 0.17)20.92% (-0.169 -0.17)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
46.35% (0.26499999999999 0.26)53.65% (-0.264 -0.26)
Metropolitanos Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
61.37% (-0.12 -0.12)38.62% (0.119 0.12)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
24.63% (-0.114 -0.11)75.37% (0.11499999999999 0.11)
Score Analysis
    Deportivo Garcilaso 51.64%
    Metropolitanos 22.96%
    Draw 25.39%
Deportivo GarcilasoDrawMetropolitanos
1-0 @ 12.64% (0.0099999999999998 0.01)
2-0 @ 9.89% (0.052999999999999 0.05)
2-1 @ 9.41% (0.02 0.02)
3-0 @ 5.16% (0.054 0.05)
3-1 @ 4.91% (0.036 0.04)
3-2 @ 2.33% (0.0090000000000003 0.01)
4-0 @ 2.02% (0.031 0.03)
4-1 @ 1.92% (0.024 0.02)
4-2 @ 0.91% (0.009 0.01)
Other @ 2.46%
Total : 51.64%
1-1 @ 12.02% (-0.040000000000001 -0.04)
0-0 @ 8.08% (-0.039999999999999 -0.04)
2-2 @ 4.47% (-0.0049999999999999 -0)
Other @ 0.81%
Total : 25.39%
0-1 @ 7.69% (-0.063 -0.06)
1-2 @ 5.72% (-0.036 -0.04)
0-2 @ 3.66% (-0.042 -0.04)
1-3 @ 1.81% (-0.017 -0.02)
2-3 @ 1.42% (-0.006 -0.01)
0-3 @ 1.16% (-0.017 -0.02)
Other @ 1.51%
Total : 22.96%