Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Tigre win with a probability of 38.25%. A draw had a probability of 31.83% and a win for Sarmiento had a probability of 29.89%.
The most likely scoreline for a Tigre win was 0-1 with a probability of 14.11%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (7.75%) and 1-2 (7.56%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 0-0 (15.07%) , while for a Sarmiento win it was 1-0 (12.93%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 12.9% likelihood.