Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Tigre win with a probability of 39.8%. A win for Macara had a probability of 30.98% and a draw had a probability of 29.23%.
The most likely scoreline for a Tigre win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.89%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8%) and 2-0 (7.6%). The likeliest Macara win was 0-1 (10.91%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.46%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 10.9% likelihood.