Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Macara win with a probability of 42.84%. A win for Deportivo Cuenca had a probability of 28.93% and a draw had a probability of 28.23%.
The most likely scoreline for a Macara win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.1%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.19%) and 2-0 (7.96%). The likeliest Deportivo Cuenca win was 0-1 (9.63%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.16%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 7.1% likelihood.