Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Melgar win with a probability of 62.36%. A draw had a probability of 23.47% and a win for Macara had a probability of 14.18%.
The most likely scoreline for a Melgar win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.18%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.72%) and 2-1 (11.1%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.14%) , while for a Macara win it was 0-1 (5.36%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 11.1% likelihood.