Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Alianza Atletico win with a probability of 40.59%. A draw had a probability of 30.07% and a win for Tigre had a probability of 29.34%.
The most likely scoreline for a Alianza Atletico win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.18%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (7.88%) and 2-1 (7.85%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (13.65%) , while for a Tigre win it was 0-1 (11.1%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 13.7% likelihood.