Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Tigre win with a probability of 49.95%. A draw had a probability of 29.2% and a win for Gimnasia had a probability of 20.85%.
The most likely scoreline for a Tigre win was 1-0 with a probability of 16.4%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.46%) and 2-1 (8.97%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.75%) , while for a Gimnasia win it was 0-1 (8.97%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 3.5% likelihood.