Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Barracas Central win with a probability of 51.42%. A draw had a probability of 28.02% and a win for Sarmiento had a probability of 20.56%.
The most likely scoreline for a Barracas Central win was 1-0 with a probability of 15.45%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.42%) and 2-1 (9.1%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.34%) , while for a Sarmiento win it was 0-1 (8.56%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 5% likelihood.